Regime Map

The Regime Dashboard

We maintain a compact dashboard that scores Growth (G), Inflation (I), and Liquidity (L). Their combinations define regimes that condition expected returns and risk budgets. We do not forecast point outcomes—we set expectations and position-sizing bands for each state.

Core Regime States

Reflation (G+, I+, L 0/+): cyclical beta, quality trend, curve-sensitive trades; carry improves.
Disinflation with Growth (G+, I−, L 0/+): duration and equities can coexist; favor quality and breadth-confirmed trend.
Tightening Slowdown (G−, I 0/+, L−): reduce gross, shorten horizons, favor cash/duration; idiosyncratic RV with tight risk.
Stagflation (G−, I+, L−/0): selective real assets and spreads; careful correlation control.

Inputs & Scoring

Each pillar uses a single robust proxy (or compact basket) mapped to −1 / 0 / +1. We prefer stability over precision.

Growth: activity/breadth composite (e.g., PMIs breadth, payrolls diffusion).
Inflation: trend/nowcast composite (core momentum, market-implied breakevens).
Liquidity: three-channel composite (policy ROC, bank lending standards/realized loan growth, funding/collateral stress).

Portfolio Playbooks (by state)

Regime	Bias	What Works	Risk Notes
Reflation	Moderate–high gross	Quality trend, cyclical beta, positive roll structures	Watch term premia; stagger entries
Disinflation + Growth	Moderate gross	Duration + equities, carry with hedged tails	Avoid crowding; tighten stops on duration shocks
Tightening Slowdown	Low gross / low net	Cash/duration, selective RV	Funding stress tripwires; shorten holding periods
Stagflation	Selective / barbell	Inflation beneficiaries, spreads with tight risk	Correlation caps; explicit stop paths

Sizing Bands (governor)

Gross exposure scales from ~0.6× → 1.0× as the G/I/L composite improves; net exposure is capped in tightening/slowdown states (|net| ≤ 0.25). Positions are volatility-scaled with drawdown and time stops.

Overlays & Tripwires

Funding-stress de-gross: auto-cut gross if spreads/basis/haircuts breach thresholds.
Correlation cap: prevent sleeves from collapsing into one macro bet.
Crisis cash: redeploy only after plumbing normalizes.

FAQ

Do regimes predict returns?
They condition return distributions; we still require price verification.

Can states overlap?
Yes—edge cases default to smaller sizes and tighter risk.

Disclaimer: For informational purposes only; not investment advice or a solicitation.

Serapis Global Inc. — Engineered for Absolute Returns.