Methodology

What We Do, Systematically

We apply a rules-based process across liquid assets (equities, rates, FX, commodities) and real-asset proxies. The engine is simple by design: classify the regime → combine independent signals → size by risk → enforce overlays.

1) Regime Classification

We tag a small number of macro regimes using robust features (growth, inflation, and a three-channel liquidity composite). The objective is not point forecasts, but expectations and risk budgets per state. See our Regime Map for current states and playbooks.

2) Signal Stack

Price verification: 1–3m momentum confirms thesis.
Carry/term structure: paid to hold where curves allow.
Valuation bands: context for sizing, not timing.
Sentiment/positioning: crowding filters.

3) Sizing & Risk

Vol-scaled positions; gross/net exposure bounded by regime; time stops and drawdown governors to prevent slow bleed.

4) Overlays (Tripwires)

Funding-stress overrides (market plumbing), correlation caps, and crisis cash redeployed only after normalization.

FAQ

Is this a black box?
No—transparent inputs with pre-committed actions.

Why systematic?
It scales discipline and humility across cycles.