The global economy is entering one of the most turbulent and uncertain periods in modern history. After more than a decade of artificially suppressed interest rates and extraordinary central bank interventions, the long-standing equilibrium in capital markets is breaking down. The assumptions that once underpinned portfolio construction and asset allocation are being shattered by structural risks that cannot be ignored.
At Serapis Global Inc., we believe this is not a time for complacency or blind faith in outdated models. It is a time for resilience, adaptability, and contrarian clarity.
The era of zero interest rates is over. Central banks have tightened aggressively to combat inflation, but government and corporate debt burdens remain historically high. This leaves policymakers in a trap: raise rates further and risk financial instability, cut rates too soon and risk renewed inflation. Liquidity conditions are volatile, with commercial bank lending tightening even as shadow banking channels continue to fuel speculative flows.
While headline inflation has moderated from its post-pandemic peaks, structural drivers remain: energy transition costs, supply chain re-shoring, demographic pressures, and wage demands. Inflation is no longer the cyclical anomaly of the past two decades—it is a recurring structural headwind.
From war in Europe to U.S.–China rivalry, global trade is fragmenting into competing blocs. Energy markets, commodities, and currencies are increasingly weaponized. Investors must recognize that geopolitical risk is no longer a tail event—it is central to the investment equation.
U.S. equities remain at elevated valuations, driven by narrow leadership in technology and AI-related sectors. Meanwhile, credit spreads are artificially tight, masking hidden risks in private credit and leveraged finance. Investor psychology swings between euphoria and denial, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality intrudes.
We view markets as dynamic ecosystems, not static machines. Our methodology integrates liquidity analysis, global money flows, intermarket cycles, valuation, and sentiment. By mapping these drivers, we anticipate turning points that others only recognize in hindsight.
Survival is the prerequisite for compounding. We maintain crisis reserves and design positions for asymmetric payoffs: small controlled risks with the potential for large gains. This ensures that even in systemic downturns, we remain not just solvent but opportunistic.
Where others are constrained by benchmarks, mandates, or asset-class silos, Serapis Global operates across equities, commodities, credit, currencies, and alternatives. This breadth allows us to rotate capital into the pockets of opportunity created by macro dislocations.
Our corporate design eliminates the redemption pressures that force many funds to sell at the worst moments. Permanent capital means we can act decisively when volatility creates generational opportunities—buying when others are forced to sell.
We embrace the psychology of the crowd as a signal to do the opposite. When markets are euphoric, we prepare defenses; when panic dominates, we deploy capital. This is not just theory—it is a principle proven time and again throughout market history.
Serapis Global Inc. is a holding company built for an era of structural change. We were established to solve a single, recurring problem for institutional capital: how to generate absolute returns while preserving capital across regimes where conventional models fail. Our answer combines disciplined global macro portfolio management with a permanent capital structure that enables multi-decade compounding and deliberate expansion into real assets and credit.
The coming years will not be kind to those who cling to outdated models of diversification or who rely on the illusion of passive safety. Volatility, cycles, and systemic fragilities will define the era. Yet within crisis lies opportunity.
At Serapis Global Inc., we do not fear volatility—we prepare for it. Our methodology and structure are designed not only to withstand shocks but to harness them, turning instability into asymmetric absolute returns.
The investors who thrive in the next decade will not be those who chase consensus trends. They will be those who recognize reality as it is, act decisively at turning points, and build structures resilient enough to weather any storm.
That is the Serapis Global advantage.
We are living through an era of extraordinary financial turbulence. Debt burdens are mounting, demographics are shifting, and the global balance of power is being redrawn. Markets no longer move solely on fundamentals but on the tides of liquidity, the whims of central banks, the convulsions of geopolitical risk, and the reflexive feedback loops of crowd psychology.
In this environment, the traditional playbook of investing—anchored in passive indexation, outdated portfolio theory, and linear assumptions—has failed to deliver. The institutions that dominate the landscape are constrained by rigid mandates, short-term redemption pressures, and layers of bureaucracy. For investors seeking true capital preservation and long-term growth, the need for a different approach has never been clearer.
That is where Serapis Global Inc. stands apart.
At Serapis Global, we do not view markets as static machines to be modeled, but as living, evolving ecosystems. Our methodology is grounded in a systems-engineering approach to global macro investing—one that integrates:
This framework allows us to cut through the noise and identify the true drivers of market regimes, positioning our portfolios not just to survive volatility but to thrive on it.
Where others are bound by benchmarks, we are bound only by opportunity. Serapis Global seeks to deliver asymmetric absolute returns across asset classes, industry groups, geographies, and timeframes.
Our strategies embrace flexibility:
In each case, the objective is the same: capture upside while rigorously controlling downside.
We believe enduring success requires more than clever trades—it requires a stable foundation. That is why Serapis Global is designed around permanent capital rather than short-term funding. Our structure eliminates redemption risk, aligns incentives with long-term value creation, and ensures we can act decisively when crises unlock generational opportunities.
Serapis Global extends beyond liquid macro to build durable, real-asset verticals that compound capital over decades. Explore our verticals:
At the heart of Serapis Global is a contrarian spirit. We do not follow the crowd; we study it. History shows that the greatest gains are made not by conforming to consensus but by recognizing when consensus has lost touch with reality. Whether in technology bubbles, commodity booms, or currency crises, it is the ability to see through mass psychology—and to act boldly at the right moment—that separates mediocrity from mastery.
In a world where investors face systemic risk, distorted markets, and eroding trust in conventional models, Serapis Global offers:
We are not building just another investment firm. We are building a resilient platform for the age of uncertainty—a firm capable of protecting and compounding capital through the most turbulent decades ahead.
Our vision is bold yet simple: to redefine what it means to invest in global markets. To stand as a fortress of stability amid storms, a generator of asymmetric opportunity, and a partner to those who seek not just returns but resilience.
The world has changed. The old models no longer work. The future belongs to those prepared to adapt.
At Serapis Global Inc., we are ready. SerapisGlobal.com – contact@serapisglobal.com – Contact Form.
Serapis Global Inc. (“Serapis” or the “Company”) is a Delaware corporation headquartered in Asheville, NC, structured as a global macro investment holding company. The Company deploys a contrarian, systematic methodology combining quantitative analysis of global liquidity, money flows, cycles, intermarket relationships, valuations, and sentiment with absolute-return strategies across equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and derivatives.
Mission: To deliver consistent asymmetric absolute returns through a risk-first global macro framework engineered to thrive in all market regimes.
Vision: Serapis Global Inc. will stand at the intersection of institutional-grade asset management, financial technology innovation, and proprietary intellectual capital — scaling to $1B+ AUM within five years while maintaining lean, efficient, technology-driven operations.
Serapis Global Inc. is built on a sound foundation of stable capital not subject to outflows or redeemption pressure. Protects our proprietary Liquid Global Macro Portfolio & Provides us with the ability to scale seamlessly into additional alternative investment verticals in real assets, including:
Serpis Global Inc.
For Additional Information Please Contact Us, Thank-you.
Cycles have long been an underappreciated yet recurring feature of markets. History shows that the rise and fall of asset classes, industries, and even entire economies follow identifiable rhythms. One of the most powerful and empirically grounded patterns is the 17.6-year cycle, a recurring sequence that has governed capital markets for centuries and continues to shape our present and future.
Researchers and market historians have identified a 17.6-year economic and financial cycle, sometimes referred to as a “hard asset cycle,” which reflects the long-term ebb and flow of capital between financial assets (stocks, bonds, paper claims) and tangible assets (commodities, real estate, infrastructure). This cycle has been studied by analysts ranging from economic historians to modern portfolio theorists.
Notably, legendary investors such as Jim Rogers and Warren Buffett have both referred to the approximate 18-year rotation between financial assets and hard assets. Rogers, in particular, has emphasized that long cycles of commodity underinvestment are inevitably followed by explosive bull markets when supply constraints meet surging demand. Buffett, though not a “cycle theorist” per se, has acknowledged the rhythm of asset class leadership, remarking that periods of prolonged equity outperformance give way to hard asset dominance, and vice versa.
The 17.6-year cycle provides a framework to understand these shifts not as random events, but as part of a repeating historical pattern.
Now, as we enter the mid-2020s, evidence suggests we are transitioning once again toward hard asset leadership.
Several structural forces point to the resurgence of the 17.6-year cycle:
If history is any guide, the next decade-plus will mark a secular rotation from financial assets to hard assets. For investors, this means:
At Serapis Global Inc., our multi-strategy global macro approach is expressly designed to adapt to such cycles. We view the 17.6-year cycle not as a theoretical curiosity but as a practical guide for portfolio construction and risk management. By combining liquid macro strategies with opportunistic allocations to hard assets and alternative verticals, we seek to position our shareholders on the right side of history’s most enduring patterns.
The lesson of the 17.6-year cycle is clear: leadership rotates, and capital must adapt. Just as past investors who ignored inflation in the 1970s paid a steep price, today’s overreliance on financial assets risks substantial underperformance in the coming cycle.
Serapis Global is committed to preparing for — and profiting from — the return of the hard asset era.
Please reach out for Partnership or Investment Opportunites: contact@serapisglobal.com